A Pause or a Peak?

Research evidence excerpt

A Pause or a Peak?

ar. of consecutive increases have weighed

on investor sentiment in on our recent

STLD: STLD shares have been recently weak as the mid-quarter guidance update was weaker than discussions. Aside from geopolitical and Fed

expected, including share repurchases missing expectations, which could imply another working related macro risks, there is the potential for

capital headwind to FCF in 2Q. For STLD, we expect the earnings conference call to touch on some downside to domestic steel pricing if

future growth spend plans and domestic aluminum market fundamentals. The earnings run-rate both domestic and/or global steel demand

for aluminum at current metal spreads and subsequent M2M relative valuation for STLD continues does not improve from current levels as

to be amongst the most widely debated topics in our recent marketing (HERE). We reiterate our Buy increased import risk looms given the current

rating on STLD at current levels for M2M earnings upgrades in both steel and aluminum. arbitrage spreads. Our argument has been

that steel equities are inexpensive at spot

CMC: Our revised earnings estimates include higher domestic rebar price forecasts as well as steel pricing, and shares should perform

higher European price forecasts. CMC shares have meaningfully underperformed in recent months, well even if steel prices are rangebound.

but these shares offer good value at the current share price. Both a lack of progress on USMCA Our analysis indicates EAF steel equities are

negotiations, and a possible resurgence in global energy prices as a result of the War in Iran

discounting steel prices ~13% below spot

pressuring global rebar prices, could help keep a lid on rebar imports into the US.

over the next 12 months based on average