US Autos, Auto Parts and Auto-tech: 2Q26 Preview: Expect inline to better results

Research evidence excerpt

US Autos, Auto Parts and Auto-tech: 2Q26 Preview: Expect inline to better results

2H26 outlooks hold the key and 2Q26 beats need to (at least) be pushed

through

Looking again at the latest MG forecast, 2H26 global LVP was brought down by

~2% vs. April. However, in our conversations with management teams, no one is

seeing signs of changing schedules, and we continue to believe that MG pre-

emptively cut their forecast on macro caution. Further, the more relevant NA/

Europe regional forecasts were negatively revised by only ~1%.

FX, particularly the EUR, is likely an incremental translation headwind to forecasts,

which should impact sales more than earnings.

Key commodities such as aluminum, oil, copper, and precious metals have come

off recent highs, though steel marches higher.

Supplier full-year 2026 consensus estimates look mostly reasonable to us as well.

The key will be the implied 2H26 guidance as investors may look to 2H run-rates to

start to calibrate 2027 expectations. If 2Q26 comes in better, and 2026 mostly

reiterated, the read could be that 2H26 numbers need to come down. However, in

our view, even if this were to occur this would be relatively minor and less of a

concern than 1 month ago as our supplier index is -11% over the past month.

We believe ADNT, BWA, DAN, DCH, LEA, MBLY could all slightly raise or tighten

higher their 2026 outlook. We don’t see any suppliers lowering guidance.

For the OEMs, we believe GM could raise their EBIT guidance to $14-$16bn from

$13.5-$15.5bn, essentially by the beat. We see Ford as potentially reiterating their

full-year view.

Other themes /topics on 2Q26 earnings:

FX: With EUR down to 1.14, this is likely to be a translation headwind to many

supplier outlooks for 2026 and into 2027, though more impactful to topline than