Prysmian SpA: Fibre margins can electrify earnings growth to 2028, as we enter catalyst-rich 2H26

Research evidence excerpt

Prysmian SpA: Fibre margins can electrify earnings growth to 2028, as we enter catalyst-rich 2H26

.73

Pikkala (Finland) and catch-up effect as weather impacted 1Q26, which should drive 12/27E 6.94 6.96 0 5.86

margin upside from operational leverage whilst mix also improving on new contracts. 12/28E 8.29 8.31 0 6.89

Potential catalyst path -- > Hyperscaler contract -- > 2Q beat & raise -- > M&A? Christopher Leonard

Analyst

We expect the well flagged €5bn long-term agreement for fibre optic capacity to be

chris.leonard@ubs.com

announced before 2Q results, after a timeline of up to 8 weeks was announced at end of +44-20-7568 3958

May. We believe this could crystallise cons upgrades to 2028e where we are 14$ ahead

Andre Kukhninof Group EBITDA from fibre capacity being redirected to premium DC customers at

elevated prices. This could also drive a re-rating of the segment as PRY moves 'inside' the

andre.kukhnin@ubs.com

DC and is more comparable to Corning (GLW) on 24x EBITDA in 2027e (V.A cons). With +44-20-7567 2162

2Q results, we expect an increase in the FY26 guidance range by €150m, taking the top

Dini Magoonend to €2.95bn, reflecting margins improving in 2H26 across Grid (aluminium pricing

lag), DS (fibre pricing), and Transmission (mix & capacity). M&A could also follow in dini.magoon@ubs.com

2H25, with Prysmian stating (here) they are looking for another US acquisition, which +44-20-7567 4037

we believe uniquely positions PRY to generate >70% of Group EBITDA in the US (from

~55% in 2025), supported by US led fibre optics repricing.

Valuation: unchanged at €175/share, with upside case of €220/sh

PRY has one of the fastest CAGRs of EBIT growth to 2028e (25%) across EU cap goods,

on our estimates, and yet it trades on 10.2x 2028e EV/EBIT, which is a ~18% discount to