2Q26 MCO Preview: Looking for Results to Confirm the Improving Market Sentiment

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 MCO Preview: Looking for Results to Confirm the Improving Market Sentiment

Global Research

9 July 2026ab

Healthcare Facilities & Managed Care Equities

Americas2Q26 MCO Preview: Looking for Results to

Confirm the Improving Market Sentiment Healthcare Providers

AJ Rice

Analyst

aj.rice@ubs.com

Market Sentiment Has Improved; We Look for Q2 Results to Confirm the +1-212-713 4299

Positivity Particularly in MA

Jonathan Yong

With much of the favorability seen in 1Q attributed to weather and flu, 2Q results will Analyst

provide an indication of the extent to which underlying core cost trends are improving jonathan.yong@ubs.com

across the major business lines. The industry should have at least five months of medical +1-212-713 6268

claims completed and, therefore, greater certainty on whether there is upside to the Michael Wei

current trend assumptions embedded in guidance. Claims data is particularly important Associate Analyst

for HUM given the number of new MA members the company added this year. How the michael.wei@ubs.com

data shakes out in comparison to their bidding for next year could offer a sense of how +1-212-713 2565

much earnings recovery is possible in 2027. By way of background, HUM has indicated James Kurek

enrollment will be flat or decline, suggesting a pullback on benefits which may help Analyst

margins for the company and the industry more broadly. Beyond HUM, with MA trend james.kurek@ubs.com

seemingly easing relative to expectations, we foresee most of the focus being on UNH +1-212-713 3704

who has suggested it may have 100 bps 'cushion' in its pricing. We also look for a Joseph Overman

positive update and guidance review related to OptumHealth. While there is likely Associate Analyst