Melrose Industries plc H1 26 Preview: focus on 2029 guidance

Research evidence excerpt

Melrose Industries plc H1 26 Preview: focus on 2029 guidance

Global Research

9 July 2026ab

Melrose Industries plc Equities

United KingdomH1 26 Preview: focus on 2029 guidance

Industrial, Diversified

12-month rating Sell

First set of results with a new CFO

This will be first full set of results under the stewardship of the new CFO. We think group 12m price target 460p

guidance for 2026 is likely to be reiterated and see upside risk to Engines and downside Prior : 430p

to Aerostructures. That said, we also think there is a possibility that the company could

Price (08 Jul 2026) 471p

revisit its 2029 free cash flow guidance and revise it lower. The company is currently

guiding to £600m in 2029e and we are more cautious, estimating £343m. Key RIC: MRON.L BBG: MRO LN

considerations into results:

Trading data and key metrics

2029 guidance: the company guides for c.£600m in 2029 FCF guidance. VA 52-wk range 682p-448

consensus models £517m and, although our estimate of £343m likely skews the Market cap. £6.27b/US$8.41b

consensus, we believe investors do not fully price in management guidance. Shares o/s 1,333m (ORD)

Engines: Consistent with our view on other engine players we see upside risk to Free float 95%

Melrose Engines division and believe 2026 guidance could be upgraded. We Avg. daily volume ('000) 5,639

model the top end of the guidance range on both revenues and EBIT (adj). Avg. daily value (m) £27.3

Common s/h equity (12/26E) £2.75b

Aerostructures: Garden Grove is c£135m in annual revenues and we P/BV (12/26E) 2.1x

conservatively assume a loss of 6 months revenues after the incident, with £50m in

Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 2.2x

remediation costs in 2026 and a further £25m in 2027. As a result of this we are at

the low end of the 2026 guidance range for the division.