Global Strategy Emerging Markets: FAQs and pushback on our EM H2 outlook

Research evidence excerpt

Global Strategy Emerging Markets: FAQs and pushback on our EM H2 outlook

Global Research

9 July 2026ab

Global Strategy Global Strategy

Emerging MarketsEmerging Markets: FAQs and pushback on our

EM H2 outlook Manik Narain

Strategist

manik.narain@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 3635

Our answers to 5 questions our clients are asking Sunil Tirumalai

In this note we summarise investors’ questions and feedback on our recently published Strategist

H2 Emerging Markets outlook. In particular, we address: sunil.tirumalai@ubs.com

+91-22-6155 6080

Nicolas Gaudois- Korea's 20% equity drawdown: is the best behind us for EM equities?

Analyst

nicolas.gaudois@ubs.com

- Narrow equity breadth, where are the brightest prospects for diversification in H2? +65-6495 5148

Roque Montero- Potential Fed hikes - what did this historically do to EM? Are FX carry trades and tight

credit spreads at risk?

roque.montero@ubs.com

+1-203-719 2112

- Peak oil, peak US inflation? Is it time to load up on EM debt?

Nimrod Mevorach

- China's rising energy independence: implications for the rest of EM? nimrod.mevorach@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 0779

Yong-Suk Son, CFAExecutive summary

Korea - which had until recently generated 120% of MSCI EM returns YTD - remains an yongsuk.son@ubs.com

Overweight for us, underpinned by a generational demand-supply mismatch in memory +82-2-3702 8804

into mid-2028, an undervalued currency and low real rates. Chinese supply is a medium- Bhanu Baweja

term risk but not one that either our Asia or US tech analysts see posing clear and Strategist

present danger. Positioning could pose further near-term risk but doesn't seem bhanu.baweja@ubs.com

consistent with an extended rut (for instance, we estimate Korea-listed leveraged ETF +44-20-7568 6833

AuM is ~2% of Samsung and SK Hynix 2027 FCF). Rohit Arora