First Read Barry Callebaut: Some mild downside risk to consensus EPS

Research evidence excerpt

First Read Barry Callebaut: Some mild downside risk to consensus EPS

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation -7.1%

Forecast dividend yield 2.7%

Forecast stock return -4.4%

Market return assumption 5.2%

Forecast excess return -9.6%

Company Description

Barry Callebaut is the world's leading manufacturer of cocoa, chocolate and confectionary

products. It boasts global leadership in industrial chocolate. Customers include multi-national

branded consumer goods manufacturers as well as professional users, including chocolatiers,

pastry chefs, bakeries and restaurants. Barry Callebaut operates around 50 production

facilities in c30 countries and employs some 10,000 people. It is involved in all stages of

production, from sourcing raw material to the finished product.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Our PT is DCF-based (WACC 8.0%, long-term growth 1.75%). Raw material supply, in

particular cocoa, is a major issue. Political changes may occur in some of the countries where

raw materials are sourced, which could affect supply. Climate conditions and disease can

influence crop levels. The cocoa price can have a negative impact on the group’s profitability,

as can other raw materials, as well as transport and packaging costs. If pricing pressure

continues in Germany, and competitors are able to further lower their producer price offering,

this could offset the anticipated restructuring gains. Barry Callebaut produces food products.

Quality issues in the production process could have a considerable impact on the group's sales

and profits. Jacobs Holding AG holds a controlling 50.5% stake in Barry Callebaut. Should

Jacobs decide to sell its shares, there could be a major share overhang.

First Read: Barry Callebaut 9 July 2026 ab 2