European Major Pharmaceuticals: Reading the Script - 2Q26 Prescription Trends

Research evidence excerpt

European Major Pharmaceuticals: Reading the Script - 2Q26 Prescription Trends

Global Research

9 July 2026ab

European Major Pharmaceuticals Equities

Europe including UKReading the Script - 2Q26 Prescription Trends

Healthcare

Matthew Weston, PhD

In this quarterly product we aim to use ongoing weekly US prescription trends to inform Analyst

upcoming quarterly product revenue for key drugs in our coverage universe. We matthew.weston@ubs.com

compare UBS estimates with VA consensus forecasts for the upcoming quarter to +44-20-7567 4055

understand how demand is tracking relative to expectations. Colin White, PhD

Analyst

Focus on EU Major Pharma colin.white@ubs.com

This report covers 19 key drugs for AstraZeneca, GSK, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Roche +44-20-7567 8657

and Sanofi. Alek Ebbeling

Associate Analyst

Gross-to-net/Rebate assumptions are key alek.ebbeling@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 3764

The link between prescription trends and product revenue is always muddied by changes

in gross-to-net PBM rebates, channel mix and wholesaler stocking. We aim to address Dominic Lunn, CFA

this by reviewing quarterly gross-to-net trends and aiming to predict where rebates will Analyst

go for the upcoming quarter. We recognise that this can involve a lot of uncertainty, but dominic.lunn@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 3621

we set out our GTN assumptions for each drug.

Xian Deng, PhD, CFA

2Q26 SPOTLIGHT PRODUCTS: Analyst

xian.deng@ubs.com

Novo Nordisk - Oral Wegovy +44-20-7901 6285

For 2Q26, UBS estimates for oral Wegovy are 26% ahead of VA consensus, but we are

Nusrat Hossain

broadly in line for FY26. In 2Q, we assume continued channel inventory stocking as Associate Analyst

product demand accelerates. We are very aware that predicting prescription volumes nusrat.hossain@ubs.com