Copper: Still waiting for decision on US S232 tariffs

Research evidence excerpt

Copper: Still waiting for decision on US S232 tariffs

Global Research

9 July 2026ab

Copper Equities

GlobalStill waiting for decision on US S232 tariffs

Basic Materials

Daniel Major

30th June target for update on copper market - not necessarily tariff decision Analyst

A Presidential proclamation published 30th Jul 2025 (LINK) stated that by 30th June daniel.major@ubs.com

2026 the US Secretary of Commerce would provide the President an update on +44-20-7568 3472

domestic copper markets, so that the President may determine whether to impose a Myles Allsop

phased import duty on refined copper of 15% starting on 1st Jan 2027. Nine days into Analyst

July investors are focused on when/what the impact of the decision on US tariffs will be. myles.allsop@ubs.com

We note that the 30th June target date was to present information to the President, not +44-20-7568 1693

necessarily the announcement of a decision on copper tariffs. We also note that tariffs Amy Yi Li

imposed under S232 have varied significantly vs proposals and this may be the case for Analyst

potential US copper tariffs, with a range of potential outcomes and implications for amy-yi.li@ubs.com

near-term copper price action. +44-20-7568 2064

George Eadie

How have US tariffs impacted the copper market? Analyst

Historically the Comex vs LME price differential/arb has been limited, but the prospect of george.eadie@ubs.com

+1-646-996 4596

tariffs on US refined copper imports has caused the arb to open attracting materially

higher US imports vs consumption and a build in US inventories; this has created Alex Stansbury, CFA

additional apparent demand for copper tightening the global market and supporting Analyst

prices. In 2025 US imported 1.66mt of refined copper, more than double average alex.stansbury@ubs.com