Pole Position: UBS European & US Autos Daily

Research evidence excerpt

Pole Position: UBS European & US Autos Daily

/mix can still lead to a beat. However, we believe

Ford may be conservative in revising guidance given a number of factors that could

dictate their results are not in their control. Thus, we currently believe they are

likely to reiterate their full-year view. This could raise concerns on implied 2H26

earnings and the bridge to 2027 (similar to last qtr.). We have no edge here, but if

F were to announce another BESS offtake agreement, with the stock <$14, we

believe it would be viewed positively.

Connectors/sensors: We prefer APH, ST into the print.

See inside for a lot more detail including company tear sheets, estimate

and PT changes, including TSLA PT to $442 from $364 on higher earnings

and margins.

Expect 2Q26 results to be inline to better than expected

According to Mobility Global (MG), 2Q26 global production was essentially inline

with expected levels in April 2026, when most companies reported and updated

outlooks. However, the regional mix is likely more favorable with NA +2.3% better

and Europe +0.4% better. China came in -3.6% worse, but we believe within the

China production levels, export production is better than production for domestic

demand which should generally be supportive of NA supplier mix.

Looking at the relevant profit metric for each supplier, on average we are ~3%

above consensus for 2Q26 with no real material misses.

For OEMs, we see a 5% EPS beat at each of F/GM as pricing has held up better.

TSLA we see a 37% EPS beat given better than expected deliveries but consensus

likely hasn’t updated yet for that data.

2H26 outlooks hold the key and 2Q26 beats need to (at least) be pushed

through

Looking again at the latest MG forecast, 2H26 global LVP was brought down by

~2% vs. April.