LatAm Agri & Foods: Weekly news recap: CSAN, Brazil Beef, US Agri, Brazil Agri

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LatAm Agri & Foods: Weekly news recap: CSAN, Brazil Beef, US Agri, Brazil Agri

Global Research

9 July 2026ab

LatAm Agri & Foods Equities

AmericasWeekly news recap: CSAN, Brazil Beef, US

Agri, Brazil Agri Food

Matheus Enfeldt

Analyst

matheus.enfeldt@ubs.com

In this report we provide a summary of the key news and developments in the +55-11-2767 6975

Agribusiness and Foods sectors over the past week. See our most recent reports

Victor Modanese

and comp tables at the end of the note.

Associate Analyst

victor.modanese@ubs.com

+55-11-2767 6008

Foods

Brazil may have reached China beef export quota for 2026

CNN reported that consultancy Safras & Mercado estimated that Brazil has fully

exhausted its beef export quota to China. Exports above the quota are now subject

to a 55% tariff, which reduces the competitiveness of Brazilian beef and lead

exporters to redirect volumes to other markets. In June alone, Brazil exported 158k

tons of beef to China (~14.3% of the annual quota), reflecting the accelerated pace

of exports that led to its exhaustion. The consultancy also highlighted a delay by

China in issuing quota-filling alerts, with authorities triggering only the 50% warning

despite strong import volumes. In addition to Brazil, Australia has also exhausted its

beef export quota to China for 2026, while Argentina, Uruguay and the US still have

room to increase shipments.

We expect strong volatility over the next few weeks on what will be the outlook for

meatpackers. On one hand, cattle prices should ease, on the other, the loss of

volumes and a worse sales mix will be a major headwind into 3Q.

Agribusiness

Brazil rules out ethanol tariff reductions in US trade talks

Estadão reported that MDIC (Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services)