US Electrical Equipment & Multi-Industry: EE/MI Morning Note - Big increase in HVAC sell-in coming? +Following the revisions & HON guidance update

Research evidence excerpt

US Electrical Equipment & Multi-Industry: EE/MI Morning Note - Big increase in HVAC sell-in coming? +Following the revisions & HON guidance update

Global Research

9 July 2026ab

US Electrical Equipment & Multi-Industry Equities

AmericasEE/MI Morning Note - Big increase in HVAC sell-

in coming? +Following the revisions & HON Industrial, Diversified

guidance update Amit MehrotraAnalyst

amit.mehrotra@ubs.com

+1-201-352 1410

A return to double-digit HVAC shipment growth?- We expect May AHRI data to be Neal Burk

Analystreported this Friday. Monthly HVAC shipments can be volatile, but historically the

neal.burk@ubs.com

average of the previous 5 years has been a good directional indicator of future growth.

+1-212-713 4066

For example, over the last 5 years shipments of A/C & Heat Pumps have increased on

average by 14% from April to May. If we assume such a sequential step up this May, it Pratap Singh

Analystwould imply shipments of 955k or an 11% increase year over year, up from 5% growth

pratap-za.singh@ubs.com

in the previous two months. We don't think that a low double-digit annual increase in +1-212-821 3112

May is a particularly bullish indicator for HVAC, as comps help and will get easier as we

proceed through the year. But a return to this type of growth rate for the first time since Zachary Walljasper

Associate AnalystJanuary 2025 would be evidence of demand stability. This aligns with our note earlier

zachary.walljasper@ubs.com

this week in which we highlighted that HVAC sell through remains soft in May, and that +1-212-713 9829

our recent expert call with HARDI indicated that end customer demand remains

relatively stable but is not showing signs of improvement. Comments from HVAC OEMs

have been incrementally constructive on residential HVAC, which could suggest lower