Simply Good Foods Co.: Stronger Top Line + Better OPM Drive 3Q Beat

Research evidence excerpt

Simply Good Foods Co.: Stronger Top Line + Better OPM Drive 3Q Beat

Global Research

9 July 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesSimply Good Foods Co.

Stronger Top Line + Better OPM Drive 3Q Beat United States

Food Products

12-month rating Neutral

Initial Reaction: Positive

Heading into the print, our conversations suggested that sentiment around SMPL still 12m price target US$12.00

leaned negative as takeaway trends remain under pressure. However, with the outlook

being meaningfully reset last quarter and with expectations more tempered, we believe

Price (09 Jul 2026) US$12.84

that many investors were not anticipating any major surprises on the quarter itself with

guidance likely to be reiterated across the board. Against that backdrop, we think the RIC: SMPL.O BBG: SMPL US

print this morning will be viewed as positive. Top-line and OPM came in better than Trading data and key metrics

expected resulting in an EPS beat. From a guidance standpoint, the company now

52-wk range US$34.05-10.44

expects better top line growth with EBITDA largely unchanged despite greater

Market cap. US$1.29b

GM pressure. Although this implies a weaker 4Q exit rate relative to Street estimates

Shares o/s 101m (COM)

heading into the day on both the top and bottom line, we think the stronger quarter/

reiterated full year outlook will still be viewed favorably. We suspect much of the focus Free float 90%

on the call will center on the 4Q exit rate and what this implies for Street numbers Avg. daily volume ('000) 2,830

looking out to FY27, but given valuation/positioning, we would expect shares to trade Avg. daily value (m) US$34.3

higher this morning (currently indicating +14%). Common s/h equity (08/26E) US$1.45b

P/BV (08/26E) 0.8x

FY26 Guidance Updated Net debt to EBITDA (08/26E) 1.5x