Indonesia Consumer Sector: Jun 26: Demand decelerates amid rising costs & fading policy support

Research evidence excerpt

Indonesia Consumer Sector: Jun 26: Demand decelerates amid rising costs & fading policy support

Global Research

9 July 2026ab

Indonesia Consumer Sector Equities

IndonesiaJun 26: Demand decelerates amid rising costs &

fading policy support Consumer, Non-Cyclical

Bernice Chew

Analyst

bernice.chew@ubs.com

Retail sales declined 4% YoY in Q226 and forward expectations turn negative +65-6495 3507

Bank Indonesia's (BI) indicative June retail sales index slowed to 221.6, declining 4.4% Permada Darmono

YoY and 0.8% MoM, with Q226 retail sales contracting 4.0% YoY amid broad-based Analyst

weakness across most categories, including F&B and tobacco (-4% YoY), apparel (-9%), permada.darmono@ubs.com

and household equipment (flat YoY). While the comparison was partly affected by the +65-6495 3137

earlier timing of Lebaran this year, underlying indicators continue to suggest a softer Alex Manoonpol

consumer environment. BI's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell 2.6% MoM in June, Analyst

reflecting moderating sentiment across all income groups, while the Consumer alex.manoonpol@ubs.com

Expectations Index (CEI) declined 1.9% YoY and 2.5% MoM, pointing to weaker future +662-613 5770

expectations for income growth, employment prospects, and business conditions.

Catch up with MYOR points to increasing consumer weakness

We caught up with Mayora's (MYOR IJ; Not Rated) investor relations on Q226

performance thus far, with the company noting that Indonesia's consumer environment

softened in May-June after a strong April, as weaker purchasing power and sluggish

FMCG demand reflected pressure from higher fuel, gas and LPG-related costs, although

categories benefiting from the government's free meal program have remained resilient

(i.e. dairy, poultry, eggs and instant meals).