InSilico Medicine Cayman: 1H26 earnings beat; NDR highlights easing lock-up overhang concerns

Research evidence excerpt

InSilico Medicine Cayman: 1H26 earnings beat; NDR highlights easing lock-up overhang concerns

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 93.3%

Forecast dividend yield 0.0%

Forecast stock return 93.3%

Market return assumption 8.1%

Forecast excess return 85.1%

Company Description

Founded in 2014 and headquartered in the US, InSilico is a globally leading AI-driven drug

discovery (AIDD) company that utilises its end-to-end proprietary Pharma.AI platform for drug

discovery and pipeline development (86.8% of 2025 total revenue). Other segments include

software solutions and other discovery, accounting for 8.7% and 4.4% of 2025 revenue.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

We value InSilico Medicine using a risk-adjusted DCF methodology.

We believe the key downside risks include: 1) termination or material scaling back of its major

partnerships, which could reduce milestone income and weaken external validation of its AI

platform; 2) clinical failure or delays of core pipeline assets, particularly those serving as key

proof-of-concept for its AI driven discovery approach; 3) tighter regulatory requirements

related to AIDD operations and partnerships, which could increase compliance costs, extend

development timelines and dampen partner engagement; 4) uncertainty in the timing and

probability of drug discovery collaboration revenue, which may lead to weaker-than-expected

revenue in the near term; 5) failing to achieve out-licensing deals consistently as expected,

which could adversely affect the company's cash flow; 6) intense competition with

biopharma companies that develop in-house AIDD capability and technology companies; and

7) technological obsolescence risk, if the company is unable to rapidly adapt to the latest