UW Expansion Supports Upgrades; SAFE Timing in Focus

Research evidence excerpt

UW Expansion Supports Upgrades; SAFE Timing in Focus

commercial markets, while completing We see limited risk to Fincantieri's medium-

the Make-or-Buy strategy outlined at the 2025 UW Day. Strategically, FCT is positioning itself term growth trajectory given management's

as a one-stop-shop in a fragmented market with no clear leader, offering end-to-end solutions unchanged 2026 leverage targets and

across the underwater value chain and targeting a €155bn cumulative underwater market improving 2028-30 outlook.

opportunity between 2026-30.

Financial Impact - Pro Forma Accretion: 2026 UW revenues are now expected to increase by From a valuation perspective FCT highlights

>50% from €720m to €1.1bn, while EBITDA rises c.70% from €130m to €220m, implying an 2026E EV/EBITDA trading multiples for

EBITDA margin of 19.2%. By 2028, UW revenues are expected to reach €1.4bn and EBITDA underwater comparables averaging around

€300m, substantially higher than original €0.9bn revenues and €170m EBITDA targets. By 19.7x, while applying a more conservative

2030, the segment is expected to reach €1.8bn revenues and €420m EBITDA, implying a c.23% 12-15x EV/EBITDA to the segment’s 2028

margin. EBITDA of €300m implies a standalone

underwater EV of €3.6-4.5bn, in lineJefferies View - UW Expansion supports Upgrades; SAFE Timing in Focus: We update our

with current FCT mkt cap. For theforecasts in line with the new guidance and revisit our valuation (see p.3). After reacting

M&A contribution specifically, applying thepositively to the M&A announcement, we believe investors remain focused on the expected

same 12-15x multiple to the incremental€5bn defense order pipeline as the next key catalyst.

€130m 2028 EBITDA implies €1.6-2.0bn of