Macau Gaming: Expect 2026E Industry EBITDA to Fall 7% YoY, Dragged by ‘Bad Luck‘ and Distractions from Soccer

Research evidence excerpt

Macau Gaming: Expect 2026E Industry EBITDA to Fall 7% YoY, Dragged by ‘Bad Luck‘ and Distractions from Soccer

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09 Jul 2026 16:00:00 ET │ 41 pages

Macau Gaming

Expect 2Q26E Industry EBITDA to Fall 7% YoY, Dragged by ‘Bad Luck’

and Distractions from Soccer

George Choi, CFA AC

CITI'S TAKE +852-2501-2489

2Q26 is arguably Macau’s toughest quarter since reopening, with GGR george.choi@citi.com

impacted by both the global soccer tournament and some extremely Timothy Chau

unfavorable hold rates. The resulting operating deleverage will likely

translate to a 7% YoY fall in 2Q26E industry EBITDA (to US$1,923m, the +852-2501-2450

lowest level 3Q24). That said, the sector is currently trading at 7.1x 1-year timothy.chau@citi.com

forward EBITDA (almost 2 SD below historical mean), and we believe the

negatives have been largely priced in. With a star-studded concert and

event calendar in 3Q and 4Q26, Macau GGR should swiftly return to normal

soon after the tournament ends. We suggest building positions on our top

picks: Galaxy (expected to be the largest EBITDA market share gainer in

2Q26E + the longest investment tail with GM Phase 4) and Wynn Macau

(sector high 8% dividend yield). The rest of our pecking order: MGM China >

Sands China > MLCO > SJM (Sell).

2Q26E Industry EBITDA Forecasts — Macau generated total GGR of MOP61,027m

in 2Q26 (flat YoY but -7% QoQ), the lowest GGR level since 1Q25. We believe the

weak numbers can largely be attributed to the global soccer tournament which

started in mid-June. In addition, we suspect Macau suffered from some significantly

unfavorable VIP hold, particularly in April. We forecast Macau’s industry EBITDA to

fall 7% YoY to US$1,923m (or -12% QoQ). We expect industry EBITDA margin to fall