Tracking Food Equipment: Continued Declines in Traffic

Research evidence excerpt

Tracking Food Equipment: Continued Declines in Traffic

USA | Multi-Industrials EquityJulyResearch9, 2026

Tracking Food Equipment: Continued Declines in

Traffic

We track restaurant data as a leading indicator for MIDD's CF business

and, to a lesser extent, for ITW's FS business. While large chains suggest

improving traffic conditions, data continues to suggest a decline in QSR traffic.

While consumers' increased willingness to spend on restaurants per the US

Consumer Confidence Index reads positively, we believe the market has not hit

the clear inflection point yet.

What Are Restaurants Saying? Based on recent conference presentations and earnings calls,

restaurant operators generally described traffic trends as stable to improving despite a consumer

that remains cautious and value conscious. Starbucks noted transaction growth across all income

cohorts, while Darden highlighted traffic gains across its casual dining brands and Cracker Barrel

pointed to gradual traffic improvement despite ongoing pressure on lower-income consumers.

Management teams broadly agreed that consumers continue to spend, but are making more

deliberate choices and increasingly expect a compelling value proposition. Menu innovation

remains the primary traffic driver, with Starbucks increasing the cadence of beverage and food

launches, Shake Shack leaning on LTOs and culinary innovation, and KFC expanding into new

chicken formats, sauces, beverages, and daypart occasions.

SSS Increases But Traffic Continues to Fall. June QSR SSS increased 1.8% Y/Y (up 1.8% in May.)

as check size grew 3.5% while traffic declined 1.7%. QSR traffic has remained at negative levels for

nearly 5yrs (excluding few instances of weak growth). The Jefferies Restaurant team noted that