A Good House on a Bad Street

Research evidence excerpt

A Good House on a Bad Street

UK | Brokers, Asset Mgrs & Exchanges

ICG EquityJulyResearch9, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEA Good House on a Bad Street

We revise our estimates post FY results and ahead of ICG's 1Q27 update RATING BUY

on 15 July. We see less significant exposure than elsewhere to well-known PRICE 1,731.00p^

sector headwinds, and, in fact, we are raising our 27/28E FRE estimates PRICE TARGET | % TO PT 2,800.00p (2,500.00p) |

by 11%. A more conservative view on balance sheet returns sees our EPS +62%

52W HIGH-LOW 2,340p - 1,425p

estimates come down, but ICG shares continue to look a "steal", in our

FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 90.2% | 30.12

view. We detect growing investor interest around ICG's building capital

MARKET CAP £5.1B | $6.8B

optionality.

TICKER ICG LN

^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

Fundraising momentum into the next flagship cycle. Europe IX is expected to hold its final noted.

close this summer. With the commingled fund already exceeding €9bn, it remains on track to

become ICG's first commingled fund to surpass the €10bn mark. Elsewhere, ICG's fundraising

cycle has a barbell profile: FY27 will be slower, followed by a pickup in FY28. Scaling strategies FY (Mar) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

are becoming increasingly meaningful: LP Secondaries, Real Estate, and Infrastructure now 2027 2028 2027 2028

account for >20% of group management fees (vs ~10% 5 years ago), with LP II targeting REV -14% -11% -11% -5%

$1.5-2.0bn (~2x LP I). There remains clear upside potential to ICG's MT fundraising target EPS -19% -16% -16% -9%

($55bn over 24-28E), after $40bn has been raised in just two years.

2027 (p) 1HalfA 2Half FY

Balance sheet inflection unlocks capital optionality. Net debt fell from £629m in FY25 to EPS 82.24 61.75 143.99