2Q26 Preview - Refining, Chemicals, & RD Tailwinds

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Preview - Refining, Chemicals, & RD Tailwinds

USA | Refining & Marketing

Phillips 66 EquityJulyResearch9, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGE2Q26 Preview - Refining, Chemicals, & RD

RATING HOLDTailwinds

PRICE $187.81^

We forecast PSX to post 2Q26 EPS of $7.55/sh, largely in line with Cons of

$7.47/sh, supported by tight fundamentals in Refining, Chemicals, and RD. PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $207.00 ($191.00) | +10%

PSX continues to execute on Midstream growth plans, and we expect Western 52W HIGH-LOW $190.61 - $118.07

Gateway FID post result but within summer '26. Mgmt's focus remains on MARKET CAP $0.0M

deleveraging with debt expected to reach ~$19bn by YE26, and we forecast TICKER PSX ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

PSX to hit its ~$17bn target in 1Q27. noted.

Refining. We anticipate Refining EBT of $2.73bn in 2Q26 driven by the continuing global FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

dislocations. We forecast margin capture of 93%, which is in line with PSX guidance of low 90s. 2026 2027 2026 2027

PSX continues to benefit from Jones Act waivers and sourcing crude from Venezuela. Our forecast REV NA NA NA NA

bakes in throughput volumes of ~1.82mmbpd and utilization of 94% (as per company guidance

EPS +14% +13% +11% +12%

of mid to low 90s). We expect controllable costs will be $5.36/bbl in 2Q26 (-24% QoQ) due to

lower Henry Hub costs and lower turnaround expenses of $137mn vs $178mn in 1Q26 (Guide:

2026 ($) Q1A Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

$120-150mn). We continue to see a tight refining macro landscape over the medium-term, and

EPS 0.51 7.55 7.63 4.96 20.60

monitor upside / downside risks from the US-Iran conflict, Chinese refined product exports, Russian

PREV 6.92 6.15 4.52 18.06

refinery outages & exports, and demand trajectory.

Midstream.