Super El Niño: Weather Outlook for Summer & Fall 2026 | REPLAY: Global | Sustainability & Transition Strategy

Research evidence excerpt

Super El Niño: Weather Outlook for Summer & Fall 2026 | REPLAY: Global | Sustainability & Transition Strategy

Global | Sustainability & Transition Strategy July 9, 2026

Super El Niño: Weather Outlook for Summer &

Fall 2026 | REPLAY

We hosted Hansi Singh, CEO and Founder of Planette AI, to discuss the Super

El Niño and its economic implications. KTs: 1) A potentially record-breaking

El Niño is underway; 2) Shifts in water availability have economic impacts;

3) Asia appears most at risk; 4) Significant but varied impacts are expected

across commodity-producing regions; 5) North America & Europe are relative

beneficiaries, though with increased flood risk.

.

1. A potentially record-breaking El Niño is underway. Our speaker characterized the 2026–27 Aniket Shah, PhD * | Head of Sust. &

El Niño as potentially unprecedented, with temperature anomalies of 3.6°C likely (some forecasts Transition Strategy

approaching 4°C) versus prior peaks ~3°C. Confidence in the strength of this event has increased +1 (212) 323-3976 | ashah14@jefferies.com

materially in recent months. As with prior El Niño episodes, global temperatures are expected to Laurence Alexander * | Equity Analyst

reach record levels, with hotter conditions and shifting rainfall patterns across many regions. +1 (212) 284-2553 | lalexander@jefferies.com

Yujin Kim * | Sust. & Transition Strategy

2. Water availability is the most important economic consideration. Singh highlighted water Associate

availability as the primary channel through which El Niño affects economic activity. Key risks +1 (212) 778-8314 | ykim4@jefferies.com

include lower hydropower generation, reduced agricultural yields, constraints on mining and heavy Charles Boakye, CFA * | Sust. & Transition