Japan Leisure: April-June 2026 games earnings preview

Research evidence excerpt

Japan Leisure: April-June 2026 games earnings preview

09Japan July

2026 Leisure

Figure 1. Near-term share price outlook in the Japanese game sector (listed by ticker)

Share price Post print

3/31-6/30 Near-term share price outlook, investment points, and catalysts

performance (%) ~6/30

-6.0 -5.8 The stock recovered to post-April 27 results levels on expectations of earnings contributions from titles developed with Nintendo (launched March 5) and related

3635 Koei Tecmo DLC. However, major proprietary titles contributing significantly to earnings are still scheduled for FY3/27 H2, with no notable catalysts until then. -12.1 -17.6

The stock has been weak since FY Q1 as the company's Q1 (for FY Q2) guidance fell below market expectations. While the company expects an earnings recovery in

-14.8 -26.73659 Nexon CY26 H2, market concerns have emerged regarding FY Q3 guidance. The key in our view to positive momentum for the shares is recovery in the China business, which

-17.3 -35.9 is the market's focus.

While the company's PER appears to make the shares look attractive versus the sector, Sega Sammy’s position on the preference ladder is unlikely to rise near-term

-4.4 -8.9 as we head into Q1 earnings, given the H2-weighted software pipeline, declines in reaction to the end of cycles for major pachinko titles, and growing losses from6460 Sega Sammy

-8.1 -20.2 upfront game business investments.

4.8 2.2 Current EV/EBITDA multiples appear somewhat low, likely attracting investors seeing investment appeal. However, we expect Q1 earnings in line with consensus,

6758 Sony Group with little probability of clarity on the semiconductor business outlook. Material shortages are likely to continue near-term. 0.7 -10.5

3.7 -2.1 That toys & hobby is driving earnings is already known.