Model Changes Post Disappointing CARDIO-TTRansform Data

Research evidence excerpt

Model Changes Post Disappointing CARDIO-TTRansform Data

Idea

July 9, 2026 01:45 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMBiotechnology | North America Michael E Ulz

Equity Analyst

Model Changes Post Mike.Ulz@morganstanley.comAvraham Novick +1 212 761-4650

Research Associate

Avi.Novick@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2231

Disappointing CARDIO- Rohit Bhasin

Rohit.Bhasin@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0534

TTRansform Data

Biotechnology

North America

Industry View Attractive

What’s Changed

Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc (IONS.O) From To

Price Target $130.00 $110.00

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc (ALNY.O)

Price Target $370.00 $400.00

Following disappointing data from the Ph3 CARDIO-TTRansform

study of eplontersen in TTR-CM, we update our models for

IONS (OW; PT to $110 from $130) and ALNY (EW; PT to $400

from $370).

Key Takeaways

IONS (OW): Remove TTR-CM revenues following disappointing data. Our PT

decreases to $110 from $130 previously.

ALNY (EW): Increase our TTR-CM revenues based on removal of a key

competitor. Our PT increases to $400 from $370 previously.

IONS model update: Decrease PT to $110. Top line results form the Ph3 CARDIO-

TTRansform study of eplontersen in TTR-CM were announced this morning and the

study failed to meet the primary endpoint (PR here; our thoughts here). Hence,

given the disappointing data, we remove TTR-CM revenues from our model

(previously 85% PoS; $760M in peak royalty revenues), which reduces our price

target to $110 from $130 previously. However, given multiple upcoming catalysts

(Ph3 data in Lp(a) in early 2H26, Ph2 data in Alzheimer's on July 14, Ph3 data in

Angelman in 2027) and the recent Tryngolza launch in SHTG, which we believe is

underappreciated (INSIGHT note here), we continue to see opportunity for upside

ahead and reiterate our Overweight rating.