Energy Market Letter: Volume IX

Research evidence excerpt

Energy Market Letter: Volume IX

India | Energy EquityJulyResearch9, 2026

Exhibit 1 - Coverage universe stockEnergy Market Letter: Volume IX

performance since start of ME conflict

Daily ships through Hormuz declined 19% w/w. Freight rates fell 30% 5% 1% Stock performance since 27th Feb

w/w but remain elevated. GRMs increased w/w and remain elevated. -5%0%

-15% -7% -8% -11% -11% -13% -14%OMCs' marketing margins have turned positive with the sharp fall in crude. -10% -20% -18%

Petchem spreads have come off from their recent peak but are up 100% -25%-30% -20% -26%

since the start of the conflict, aiding Reliance's O2C. BPCL and IOCL benefit GAIL Reliance MAHGL HPCL IGL ONGC PLNG GUJENERG BPCL IOCL

Source: Bloomberg, Jefferiesfrom lower crude and elevated GRMs. We expect OMCs to recoup losses .

before government raises excise duty. Exhibit 2 - Number of vessels crossing Strait

of Hormuz

Strait of Hormuz shipments decline: Commercial vessel movement has declined 19% w/w in 180 Hormuz commercial vessel crossings (24hr vessel count)

the past seven days (Ex 2) and has reached 25+ against pre-conflict level of 120. About 800mn 150

bbl of crude inventories have been drawn down since the start of the conflict. 12090

Freight rates remain elevated: Freight rates declined 30% w/w but are still up ~2x since the 300

start of the conflict (Ex 6). Freight rates could remain elevated in the near term, as supply chains 1-Jan-26 16-Jan-26 31-Jan-26 15-Feb-26 2-Mar-26 17-Mar-26 1-Apr-26 16-Apr-26 1-May-26 16-May-26 31-May-26 15-Jun-26 30-Jun-26are expected to take time to normalize. .

Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies

Refining margins increase w/w, remain elevated: Singapore GRMs are US$ 21/bbl over the

Exhibit 3 - Average petchem spreads trend

past week compared to US$5/bbl at end-February.