The Daily Canuck 09.07.2026

Research evidence excerpt

The Daily Canuck 09.07.2026

Canada | Financials EquityJulyResearch9, 2026

Figure 1 - Canada - International TradeThe Daily Canuck 09.07.2026

Balance (in C$ millions)

Ahead of results, Intact announced that it had some outsized catastrophe $20,000$15,000

losses (related to weather events in Canada and commercial fires in UK&I). $10,000$5,000

$0IFC also noted that it had unusual large losses, not categorized as Cat losses,

resulting from fire claims and other property losses in both Canada and the ($10,000)($5,000)

($15,000)

Aug-22 Feb-23 Aug-23 Feb-24 Aug-24 Feb-25 Aug-25 Feb-26UK&I.

. Trade balance - U.S. Trade balance - other countries Total trade balance

Source: Statistics Canada, Jefferies

What you need to know:

Yesterday, IFC pre-announced Q2 CAT losses and extraordinary losses. We anticipate that the•

market will shrug off the impact of the higher than anticipated Cat losses (with Q2 a seasonally

higher quarter), and the additional large losses will likely give investors a pause. However, this

is more likely a factor of bad timing than a degradation of the operating environment. While

near-term profitability is impeded, we suspect that this will further the hard domestic pricing

and, ironically, can be viewed positively.

On Tuesday, Statistics Canada reported that Canada’s trade surplus expanded to $4.2B in May•

as exports rose 0.9% and imports dipped 0.2%. Exports hit a record $77.1B, driven by metals,

minerals, and aluminum, while energy exports fell on lower crude volumes. Imports declined

mainly due to reduced gold and metal purchases, offsetting gains in consumer goods and

machinery. The U.S. surplus widened to $11.6B with stronger exports and lower imports, while

the deficit with other countries increased. Overall trade, including services, recorded a $3.8B