PowerBoard Australian Electricity Markets - June 2026

Research evidence excerpt

PowerBoard Australian Electricity Markets - June 2026

Australia | Utilities EquityJulyResearch9, 2026

KEY STOCKS FEATURED INCLUDE:PowerBoard Australian Electricity Markets -

TICKER RATING PRICE TARGETJune 2026

AGL AU BUY AUD11.21

Electricity demand was generally weaker through June, driven by higher ORG AU BUY AUD12.54

renewable generation and warmer weather conditions. This has resulted

in continued moderation in electricity prices. While we expect FY26

earnings for both AGL and Origin's Energy Markets to remain in-line with

KEY CHANGES INCLUDE:

expectations, we lower our FY27-28 earnings forecasts, resulting in lower

price targets, but maintaining Buy recommendations for both. TICKER RATING PRICE TARGET

AGL AU BUY AUD11.21 (AUD12.76)

Electricity demand lower: Across the NEM, electricity demand in Jun-26 is down 2.7% on the ORG AU BUY AUD12.54 (AUD13.04)

pcp, with renewable generation accounting for 40% - up 4%pts on the pcp. Demand levels fee

in NSW (-5.9%), SA (-3.6%) and QLD (-1.2%), while Victoria was up by 0.6%.

Figure 1 - Electricity Plan Discount toLow gas powered generation continuing: A very mild start to the winter has reduced utilisation Reference Prices for Retail Customers

of the gas peaking fleets, which coupled with higher coal fleet availability and continued Endeavour AGL Alinta EA Red Origin

renewable investment has resulted in sustained weakness across wholesale electricity prices. FY26FY27 -16%-10% -15%-12% -12%-12% -16%-13% -8%-8%

Chg (%) -6% -3% 0% -3% 0%

FY26 earnings outlook: For AGL, lower electricity pricing coupled with improved fleet FY26Ausgrid AGL-16% Alinta-15% -12%EA -17%Red Origin-10%

availability suggest earnings to be tracking towards the mid-point of guidance range (forecast FY27Chg (%) -10%-6% -12%-3% -12%0% -13%-4% -10%0%