Paper & Packaging: 2Q26 Earnings Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Paper & Packaging: 2Q26 Earnings Preview

USA | Paper & Packaging EquityJulyResearch9, 2026

KEY STOCKS FEATURED INCLUDE:Paper & Packaging: 2Q26 Earnings Preview

Demand has been reasonably steady and oil and resin prices have fallen in June, TICKER RATING PRICE TARGET

which has led to a relief rally on the group. That said, we still see good value AMCR BUY $51.36

in SW, AMCR, SON, and continue to find CCK & BALL as compelling steady AVY HOLD $175.00

compounders. BALL BUY $71.00

CCK BUY $142.00

Sector seeing relief rally. Demand has been reasonably steady despite an inflationary backdrop, GPK HOLD $11.00

with the Nielsen data showing weaker trends in food and alcoholic bev, while demand has been

solid in non-alc bev and HPC. We're seeing some green shoots in industrial end mkts, with stronger

box shipments and trends in SON's industrial business, which lines up with the PMI index. While

PKG called out higher than expected freight costs recently, oil and resin prices have fallen in June,

with inflation likely peaking in 2Q and the group has seen a relief rally in June (+7%; S&P: -1%). That Chart 1 - Nielsen US Food, Beverage & HPC

said, we still see good value in SW, AMCR, SON, and continue to view CCK & BALL as compelling Retail Volume Growth

steady compounders as they take share from other substrates. (xAOC + Conv; Rolling 12 weeks YOY %)

3%

Not a low bar to clear for PKG; steady results for SW. We updated our estimates for SW & PKG 2%1%0%

to reflect the realization of $50/ton cboard June increase in the US, along with our updated view (1%)(2%)(3%)

on freight & fiber costs, which collectively should start contributing favorably to 4Q25 earnings, (4%)(5%)

but provide a more meaningful uplift in 2026. We expect SW to report an inline 2Q and to reiterate (6%)