UAE Real Estate: Marketing Feedback, Jun-26 Data Pack

Research evidence excerpt

UAE Real Estate: Marketing Feedback, Jun-26 Data Pack

United Arab Emirates | Property & Real

Estate EquityJulyResearch9, 2026

Exhibit 1 - UAE Residential PricesUAE Real Estate: Marketing Feedback, Jun-26

Dubai: Jun-26 4.3% below Feb, o/w aprt 4.6%

below, villas 2.4% below. Abu Dhabi: 1.4% belowData Pack

Feb, o/w aprt 1.3% below, villas 1.9% below

Sentiment from 30+ investor meetings has been cautious in MENA and abroad 2,5002,000

1,500(amid US$1.4bn of foreign outflows YTD); despite an >25% sell-off, the sector

is not widely perceived as a deep value. A prevailing view was a preference for 1,000500

0Aldar, reflecting tighter supply-demand and higher gearing to the UAE capex

Dubai Average Sales Price (AED/Sqf) Abu Dhabi Average Sales Price (AED/Sqf)super-cycle. Jun-26 data also points to a lower impact in Abu Dhabi (vs Dubai) . Source: Reidin, Jefferies

so far, though we note a typical 30-60 day lag in deal registrations.

Exhibit 2 - Dubai residential transaction vols

Jun-26: 13.4k, +36% M/M, 16% below Feb. Off-

What The Market Told Us. Three weeks of post-initiation discussions repeatedly returned to (1) plan primary: 6% below Feb, ready 31% below

Conditions on the ground, chiefly population dynamics (our base case is -5.0%/-3.0% drop in 22,00020,000

Dubai/Abu Dhabi in 2026E followed by a 2.0% CAGR recovery in the medium-term) with investors 18,00016,00014,000

increasingly relying on leading indicators: mobile subs (we are unlikely to see COVID-like drop 12,00010,000

when in 2Q20 e&/Du lost 1.94m, or -11% Q/Q), school admissions, and tourism. Consistent with 8,0006,000

4,000

2,000our (2) Supply-demand framework, many agreed that Abu Dhabi is structurally tighter, while 0

debate around Dubai centered on the sustainability of current absorption as handovers accelerate.