2Q26 Market Structure Preview: Uncertainty Persists; But Attractive Valuations

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Market Structure Preview: Uncertainty Persists; But Attractive Valuations

USA | Brokers, Asset Mgrs & Exchanges EquityJulyResearch9, 2026

KEY STOCKS FEATURED INCLUDE:2Q26 Market Structure Preview: Uncertainty

TICKER RATING PRICE TARGETPersists; But Attractive Valuations

CBOE HOLD $269.00

Our 2Q26 EPS estimates decreased by -2.7% on avg for the group (excl. COIN). CME BUY $286.00

Overall trading activity moderated from the elevated levels of 1Q26, but remains ICE BUY $171.00

relatively strong on a y/y basis (ex crypto). While the macro environment NDAQ HOLD $90.00

remains uncertain, the normalization of activity is consistent with prev periods MKTX HOLD $124.00

of outsized volatility. However, valuations for what we consider to be a high-

quality sector are too hard to ignore. Our favorite ideas are CME and ICE.

Uncertainty remains an overhang - Exchanges over the last two months are down on average, KEY CHANGES INCLUDE:

-13.7% as regulatory uncertainty and the threat of increased competition (i.e. perpetuals) has TICKER RATING PRICE TARGET

entered the narrative. With the CFTC opening the door for more competition and focused on

CBOE HOLD $269.00 ($350.00)

"promoting innovation" the potential for increased competition for incumbent exchanges has

emerged. As we have written about in previous notes (Perpetual Motion: The Rise of Perps and CME BUY $286.00 ($348.00)

Perpetual Motion: The Rise of Perps Part II), we view this as more of a retail-specific issue to ICE BUY $171.00 ($199.00)

start. While perps have the potential to gain traction across multiple asset classes if approved, we NDAQ HOLD $90.00 ($96.00)

still view the incumbent exchanges that can launch equivalent products have a right to win and MKTX HOLD $124.00 ($172.00)

capitalize on this opportunity.