Calmer Waters: Better Channel Checks, Lower Fuel, Stay OW CCL

Research evidence excerpt

Calmer Waters: Better Channel Checks, Lower Fuel, Stay OW CCL

Foundation

July 9, 2026 04:14 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MCruise Lines | North America Jamie Rollo

Equity Analyst

Calmer Waters: Better Channel Jamie.Rollo@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. LLC +44 20 7425-3281

Stephen W Grambling

Equity AnalystChecks, Lower Fuel, Stay OW Stephen.Grambling@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1010

Nicholas P DeValeria

Equity AnalystCCL

Nick.DeValeria@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1413

Our checks show cruise market still running at two speeds, but Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

James Ruddell

Research Associateno longer luxury holding everything up: mainstream demand

James.Ruddell@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1803

improving, pricing has firmed, and Europe less drag. We nudge

CCL ests higher for lower fuel & stay OW, w/strong FCF funding Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Kun Chen

Equity Strategist25% cash return by 2029. Q2 previews also point to small beats

Kun.Chen1@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-5228

for RCL/NCLH/VIK.

Cruise Lines

North America

Industry View In-LineMOur channel checks (see here) have improved since our last report: Cruise

demand is still bifurcated, but no longer all about luxury, with the mass-market /

contemporary segment now improving rather than soft.

1. Luxury remains the clearest strength: High-end demand continues to lead, with

one luxury channel now running +37% YoY. Demand is strongest in luxury ocean,

expedition, river, premium suites and longer itineraries, and average transaction

values keep rising as guests trade up on suites, airfare, hotels and shore experiences.

2. Mainstream has turned: Several agents now report bookings +5% YoY, and one

notes contemporary sales improving from -8% to -3% YoY, with big-ship mass