2Q26 Prelim PC Shipment Results: Cracks Emerging

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Prelim PC Shipment Results: Cracks Emerging

UpdateMExhibit 2: Supply chain execution and scale are an increasingly important

competitive advantage - HPQ was the only top 5 OEM to lose market share Y/Y,

while AAPL posted the strongest share gains.

C2Q26 Y/Y PC Unit Market Share Gain/Loss

150 +140bps

100 +80bps

Bps 50 +40bps

In ~flat

-50

-100 -90bps

-150

HPQ DELL ASUS Lenovo AAPL

Source: IDC, Morgan Stanley Research

Looking ahead, PC pull-forward, intensifying memory headwinds, building

channel inventory, and tougher Y/Y comps set up for a more challenging PC

market landscape in 2H, and into 2027. While preliminary C2Q shipment results

modestly exceeded our expectations, we believe the underlying message remains

largely unchanged. The June quarter benefited from continued pull-forward

associated with memory shortages and price increases, yet still represented the first

quarter of Y/Y shipment declines in more than two years. Industry experts do not

expect additional PC inventory pull-forward in 2H, and both (1) our late-May/early

June Taiwan checks, and (2) IDC's commentary point to rising PC inventory levels in

the channel, which is why we expect PC shipment declines to accelerate in 2H26.

Uneven macro conditions are playing a role in deteriorating demand as well (and

comps get much tougher in 2H26). For reference, 3Q notebook ODM builds are

currently expected to decline 16% Y/Y (vs. -1% Y/Y in C1H26). Taking 1H26 reported

PC shipments alongside the latest 3Q notebook builds implies PC shipments decline

HSD% Y/Y in C1Q-C3Q26 (vs. +10% Y/Y in CY25), with C4Q PC shipments likely to

deteriorate from C3Q ( Exhibit 3 ). The 2027 PC market outlook is still uncertain, but

we'd be biased to argue the continuation of these trends (i.e. higher prices, elastic