Gold Mining 2Q26 Quarterly Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Gold Mining 2Q26 Quarterly Preview

Global Research

8 July 2026ab

Gold Mining Equities

Global2Q26 Quarterly Preview

Basic Materials

Daniel Major

Picking the bottom is tricky but miners are well positioned Analyst

Gold doubled from 4Q24-1Q26, driven by reserve diversification and debasement daniel.major@ubs.com

concerns rather than traditional drivers (real rates and the USD). The Middle East conflict +44-20-7568 3472

proved to be the trigger for gold's historical macro drivers to re-emerge with higher Myles Allsop

energy-driven inflation, hawkish Fed, rising real yields, and a stronger USD triggering a Analyst

~25% correction. Near-term downside remains if US data remains robust & yields myles.allsop@ubs.com

continue rising, but structural support remains from central bank buying, rising +44-20-7568 1693

sovereign debt/de-dollarization; positioning has reset and the risk/reward is improving. George Eadie

Analyst

george.eadie@ubs.com

Gold miners (GDX) have corrected ~35% from the highs and face near-term headwinds

+1-646-996 4596

from earnings downgrades, higher energy costs, and potential cost guidance pressure.

However, compared with prior cycles, the sector is entering a downturn from a position Amy Yi Li

of strength, with record margins, strong balance sheets (mostly net cash), robust free Analyst

amy-yi.li@ubs.com

cash flow (at spot ~6x EV/EBITDA and 7% FCF yield), disciplined capital allocation, and

+44-20-7568 2064

capacity for buybacks and opportunistic M&A. If gold falls further, miners will likely

follow, but in our view they are more resilient than in previous bear markets. Steve Friedman

steve.friedman@ubs.com

2Q26: Cost pressures evident but guidance likely to be largely unchanged

+27-11-322 7252