MENA Equity Research: MENA high frequency recovery indicators

Research evidence excerpt

MENA Equity Research: MENA high frequency recovery indicators

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MENA Equity Research Equities

EMEA EmergingMENA high frequency recovery indicators

Financial

Jon Peace

We consolidate a heat map of MENA market activity Analyst

In this note, we use UBS Evidence Lab data to track a number of high frequency metrics jon.peace@ubs.com

in the MENA region. By following weekly data such as real estate transactions, shipping +44-20-7567 0638

and airline flow, hotel occupancy rates, traffic volume and certain app usage (such as Luis Schmidt

home delivery, e-commerce and payments), we can potentially gauge the speed of Associate Analyst

recovery from disruption in the underlying economy. Data is generally compared with luis.schmidt@ubs.com

prior year monthly average to allow for seasonality. +44-20-7567 0847

Alexander Estefanous, CFA

Latest data shows improvements in most metrics led by air and sea traffic Analyst

Latest data post the MOU between the US and Iran shows Dubai real estate stable, with alex.estefanous@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 0508

air cargo, air seat capacity, sea traffic and Hormuz crossings improving overall. Traffic

congestion has mostly normalised overall but is still slightly lower in Dubai, while hotel Ulyana Lenvalskaya

occupancy is still running lower in Saudi and UAE YoY. Saudi remains less disrupted than Analyst

MENA peers. ulyana.lenvalskaya@ubs.com

+971-443-64776

Dubai real estate: sale and rental transactions at -21% and +1% (vs -15% and Anna Kishmariya

+1% the prior week) in the 7-day average to 5 July, versus the Feb 2026 average; Analyst

anna.kishmariya@ubs.com

Air capacity: from Europe at -20% (vs -27% the prior week) as of 29 June, versus

+44-20-7568 7999

the July 2025 average;

Henri Patricot, CFA