Barratt Redrow: Trimming FY27 numbers ahead of trading update

Research evidence excerpt

Barratt Redrow: Trimming FY27 numbers ahead of trading update

Global Research

7 July 2026ab

Barratt Redrow Equities

United KingdomTrimming FY 27 numbers ahead of trading

update Home Construction

12-month rating Buy

12m price target 402pTrading update expected to confirm FY 26 expectations, but potentially higher

build cost inflation ahead in FY 27 Prior : 432p

We expect the group to be largely on track for FY 26E with volumes (incl. JV) within the Price (06 Jul 2026) 283p

guided range of 17,200-17,800 units. However, sequential gross margin recovery in H2 RIC: BTRW.L BBG: BTRW LN

26E is likely to be more modest vs previous expectations, in still an incentive driven

market, offset by tighter overheads and lower interest costs, leaving expectations largely Trading data and key metrics

on track for consensus PBT (VA FY 26E PBT at £557m). FY 26E net cash should be closer 52-wk range 426p-241

to the top end of the guided range (£550-650m) due mainly to limited land spend and Market cap. £4.11b/US$5.49b

timing of building safety payments. We expect underlying trading to be more resilient, Shares o/s 1,451m (ORD)

only marginally below last year in the last 13 weeks (ex-bulk) and we have pencilled in a Free float 100%

FY 26E private sales rate (incl. bulk) of 0.60. For FY 27E, the group should continue to Avg. daily volume ('000) 9,974

target volume growth of +3-5% assuming stable market and outlet growth but lower Avg. daily value (m) £26.2

margin performance on negative price/cost spread amidst higher energy costs from the Common s/h equity (06/26E) £7.83b

Middle East conflict, albeit surcharge driven at this stage. P/BV (06/26E) 0.5x

Net debt to EBITDA (06/26E) NM

Changes to estimates: reflecting ~200bps lower op. margin y/y for FY 27E

For FY 26E, we trim our adj.