Global Mining: Mining through a HOLT valuation lens: what‘s changed?

Research evidence excerpt

Global Mining: Mining through a HOLT valuation lens: what‘s changed?

ill Analyst

continue to drive the overall sector, we expect further divergence between commodities george.eadie@ubs.com

over the next 12 months due to differing fundamental outlooks. +1-646-996 4596

Alex Stansbury, CFA

From a HOLT perspective, the market implied forecasts across all subsectors have Associate Analyst

moved higher since Aug-25; relatively Gold, Aluminium and now Diversifieds alex.stansbury@ubs.com

screen as cheaper vs market expectation (based on sell-side consensus), vs Copper +1-212-882 0097

stocks are priced for an acceleration in returns. Our relative rankings are comparable to Ethan Hong

HOLT and we see most attractive spot valuations in Aluminium >Gold > Copper > Iron Associate Analyst

Ore/Diversified on an EV/EBITDA basis. Despite less attractive valuations vs historical ethan.hong@ubs.com

averages (using HOLT or UBS valuation methodologies); copper remains our +1-212-649 8258

preferred sub-sector as we see the most attractive commodity outlook and believe Chinazom Chidolue, CFA

valuation premiums will hold or further re-rate in the future. HOLT Sector Specialist

chinazom.chidolue@ubs.com

+44-20-7888 3051

Copper: On a HOLT basis the copper stocks screen as relatively expensive with high

market expectations vs near-term forecasts; on an EV/EBITDA basis they are trading

above 2yr and 5yr average valuations. However, we remain constructive on the

fundamental outlook for copper based on supply constraints vs resilient demand from

energy transition (which is arguably more compelling after the ME conflict), and see the

trend of multiple re-rating in copper equities as sustainable in supporting valuations.