Wintrust Financial Corporation: Fairly Valued Quality Bank - Assuming at Neutral

Research evidence excerpt

Wintrust Financial Corporation: Fairly Valued Quality Bank - Assuming at Neutral

Global Research

7 July 2026ab

Wintrust Financial Corporation Equities

United StatesFairly Valued Quality Bank - Assuming at Neutral

Banks, Ex-S&L

12-month rating Neutral

Our Call Prior : Buy

A clean Midwest growth story, with durable organic balance-sheet growth, stable mid- 12m price target US$170.00

3.5% NIM, strong credit, and TBV compounding. Much of the upside is already priced Prior : US$176.00

in, and we see better value elsewhere. We assume coverage at Neutral.

Price (02 Jul 2026) US$161.19

Assuming Coverage With Neutral Rating And $170 Price Target RIC: WTFC.O BBG: WTFC US

We assume coverage of WTFC with a Neutral rating and $170 price target, implying a Trading data and key metrics

premium 12.3x on our FY27 EPS. The WTFC model is built on 16 disparate banking

52-wk range US$162.79-120.24

charters providing a community bank feel in Chicagoland, while a central back-office

Market cap. US$10.9b

helps maintain mid-50s efficiency. We see balanced risk-reward at current levels as

Shares o/s 67.4m (COM)

franchise quality is largely priced in.

Free float 98%

Earnings Durability Is The First Debate Avg. daily volume ('000) 455

Avg. daily value (m) US$68.9

WTFC’s earnings story is broader than NIM, but margin stability is still the key input that

Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$7.49b

allows growth to convert into EPS. We model NII of $2.43B/$2.63B/$2.83B in FY26/

FY27/FY28, supported by FTE NIM of 3.53%/3.55%/3.56% and average earning asset P/BV (12/26E) 1.5x

growth of 9.0%/7.5%/6.9%. Deposit pricing is competitive but not irrational in core Tier 1 ratio 12%

Chicago markets and 70–80% of the loan book matures/reprices over the NTM, offset EPS (UBS, diluted) (USD)