Credit & Decision Making Software: VantageScore 5.0 Focuses on Accuracy

Research evidence excerpt

Credit & Decision Making Software: VantageScore 5.0 Focuses on Accuracy

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Valuation methodology in the sector entails blended comp set as well as 2yr forward price

target derived from applying a multiple to 2028E EBITDA and rolling price target forward at

cost of equity to obtain 12-month price target. Investing in the technology sector entails

above-average risk given low sales visibility, rapid pace of innovation and technological

change, intense competition, frequent M&A, and low barriers to entry in many markets.

EFX: Our price target is based on a multiple on FY28E EBITDA rolled forward by Cost of Equity.

Risks: higher-than-expected interest rates, waning consumer strength, technological

disruption.

FICO: PT is based on multiple on FY-Sep-28E EBITDA rolled forward by Cost of Equity. Risks: 1)

increased regulation, 2) slower-than-expected Software platform adoption, 3) higher-than-

expected infrastructure and IT spend, and 4) competition on Scores side.

TRU: Our Transunion price target is based on multiple on EBITDA rolled forward by Cost of

Equity. Risks to the downside: significant competition across information services providers,

breaches of security and fallout from reputational damages, potential loss of access to data

sources, increased regulatory oversight, and an inability to maintain and improve

technological systems. In addition, macro headwinds driving an unfavorable mortgage

consumer credit environment could negatively impact demand in key end markets/verticals.

Risks to the upside include higher than expected pricing power, faster than expected ability to

maintain and improve technological systems, generating faster than expected scale and

capital returns.

First Read: Credit & Decision Making Software 8 July 2026 ab 2