Face-off: Comparing Nokia and Ciena

Research evidence excerpt

Face-off: Comparing Nokia and Ciena

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July 9, 2026 02:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MTechnology - Telecoms Equipment | Europe Terence Tsui

Equity Analyst

Face-off: Comparing Nokia and Terence.Tsui@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. LLC +44 20 7425-3095

Meta A Marshall

Equity AnalystCiena Meta.Marshall@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0430

Antonio Jaramillo

We take an in-depth look at two AI networking stocks, Nokia and Research Associate

Antonio.Jaramillo@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4438

Ciena. Post the wider industry sell-off, all eyes are on whether

hyperscaler capex remains robust. Ciena (Equal-weight) is the Technology - Telecoms Equipment

Europe

optical market leader, but Nokia (Overweight, Top Pick) is Industry View In-Line

ramping up quickly and offers a more attractive valuation.

Key Takeaways

For years, Nokia's closest peer has been Ericsson as competitors in mobile RAN.

However, in February 2025 Nokia acquired Infinera, which has increased its

exposure to optical networking equipment.

Today, ~8% of revenues are from AI & Cloud, with revenues outside of mobile

RAN now ~50% of Group.

Ciena is the optical market leader in an industry seeing unprecedented demand,

but Nokia is building quickly.

Nokia (Overweight, Top Pick) as still in the early innings of its transformation.

Ciena is the optical market leader, but Nokia is ramping up quickly:

Unprecedented demand from hyperscalers in their datacenter build-outs is

translating into a surge in orders for optical networking kit to move large amounts

of data quickly between and within data centers. Around 50% of Ciena's Group

revenues are derived from cloud customers, compared to <10% at Nokia, although

we estimate this could grow to c30% of Group by the end of the decade.