Brazil Railroads and Shipping: Grains Logistics Tracker: Another Soft Lineup in June, Beware of Further Logistics Moderation

Research evidence excerpt

Brazil Railroads and Shipping: Grains Logistics Tracker: Another Soft Lineup in June, Beware of Further Logistics Moderation

Brazil Railroads and Shipping

08 July 2026 Citi Research

Grains Logistics Tracker: Citi’s analysis of trends

in the logistics market

In Brazil’s grains logistic chain, rail and river-barge transportation usually compete

for volumes with the competitive truck freight market. Although there are relevant

differences between trucking spot contracts and rail/river-barge take-or-pay

contracts, commodities operators take into account the possibility of contracting

spot transportation in the future when they negotiate rail and river take-or-pay

volumes. As a result, expectations about truck spot tariffs are an important driver

for Rumo’s and Hidrovias’ contract negotiations and its associated tariffs.

It’s fair to consider that truck tariffs derive from margins set on the spot market

(which fluctuate with transportation supply and demand) and truckers’ different

operating costs (such as diesel, maintenance, truck depreciation, etc). Therefore,

by analyzing truckers’ margins trends, it’s possible to understand how supply and

demand for transportation are balancing, and how this could impact Rumo and

Hidrovias on their freight negotiations.

In Citi’s trucking margins analysis, we try to estimate margins for some key

agribusiness routes in Brazil. Those are calculated based on available tariffs data

for spot truck transportation, combined with cost considerations divided in two

main factors: diesel and other ex-diesel costs.

To estimate truckers’ margins, Citi considers the following assumptions:

n A truck that can carry 25 tons of cargo per trip.

n Average fuel consumption for the trip of 2.5 kilometers per liter of diesel.