Weather Shocks: Spring Heat to Lift Mobility, Weigh on Ag in Q3

Research evidence excerpt

Weather Shocks: Spring Heat to Lift Mobility, Weigh on Ag in Q3

~0.8% headwind. Gasoline demand likely has a New Resi Construction (Housing Starts) Auto Refinish

~2.6% tailwind as more conducive temperatures for land-based travel, and auto sales ~0.9% from . Residential Construction

improved dealership traffic. Source: Jefferies Estimates

Global Trends: Global surface temperature from January to May was the fourth-highest on record Chart 3 - 2027 Baseline Impact (Cumulative)

Range: -2.9% to +2.7%

(June data pending), according to the NCEI. Snow cover extent was below average from January

Mobility Retail Sales

to May, and cyclone activity was below-to-near average in all months except January. Australia, Manufacturing Broad GDP Impact

2.7%

-0.1% 0.1%Madagascar, the Philippines, and Vanuatu were affected by heavy rains caused by cyclone activity. Agriculture Retail SalesGasolineApparelDemand

-2.9% 0.0% Diesel DemandIn the US, more than half of the states experienced a spring which ranked in their top three warmest. Energy -0.3%-0.2% -1.2% -0.3%

0.0% 0.0% Energy Demand/UtilitiesJanuary-May was also the driest on record for the contiguous US, with more than half of the region Services

-2.7% -0.7%

(Repairs) 1.0% -0.1%still experiencing drought conditions as of early June. Building Maintenance

Non-Resi Construction -0.5% 0.3% 0.3% Auto SAARCar/Light Truck Sales

New Resi Construction (Housing Starts) Auto Refinish

Residential ConstructionQ2 Baseline Impact: We estimate the baseline impact from Q2 weather on global GDP was a 0.1%

.

net headwind, with the strongest negative impact on agriculture (-1.4%) and apparel (-0.6%). The Source: Jefferies Estimates

most significant tailwinds were for gasoline (+2.6%) and auto sales (+0.9%). By region, the most