EXE: 2Q26 Preview: Buyback Pivot; CEO Search, Marketing Update & Macro in Focus

Research evidence excerpt

EXE: 2Q26 Preview: Buyback Pivot; CEO Search, Marketing Update & Macro in Focus

s: With ’26 debt

targets met, we expect a pivot to share buybacks and model buybacks of ~$250mn for 2Q (up from

~$100mn previously).

Market Focus: 1) FCF Allocation: Focus on the pace of buybacks in 2H26. We model 2H26

~$425mn (up from ~$350mn previously). 2) CEO Search: Expect reiteration of late 3Q/early

4Q26 timeline. 3) Marketing: Factors that could trigger an increase in the signing of nat gas

supply agreements among key US gas players, along with EXE's progress on its marketing and

commercial strategy. 4) Margin Uplift: Progress on the targeted ~$0.20/mcf of margin uplift (or ~

$500mn of repeatable annual incremental FCF). 5) ’26 Capex: 2Q26 lease spending and incremental

opportunities. Expect intact ’26 capex guide. 6) Western Haynesville: Update on the 2nd well

performance, potential improvement in the cost structure and plan going forward. 7) Efficiencies:

Haynesville capital efficiencies in 2Q, progress on ’26 targets and add’l upside for ‘27. 8) Macro:

Mgmt. view on US nat gas incl update on demand tailwinds from LNG and power, and EXE’s

Haynesville positioning into the coming years. 9) Scale and Integration: View on the current scale

and strategy towards being more vertically integrated such as add’l minority pipeline interests. 10)

’26 Guide: Update (if any) to ’26 production guide of 7.4-7.6 bcfepd.

Valuation: At our pricing deck (Ex.1), we expect EXE to generate EBITDA of ~$6.0/$6.2/$6.8bn on Lloyd Byrne * | Equity Analyst

total production of ~7.5/7.6/7.7 bcfepd. Reiterating Buy rating and PT of $141. +1 (212) 323-7528 | lloyd.byrne@jefferies.com

Rahul Kakkar * | Equity Analyst

+1 (713) 308-4508 | rkakkar@jefferies.com