Medicare May 2026 - Volume decline offset by price for GPs, Specialists and ARS

Research evidence excerpt

Medicare May 2026 - Volume decline offset by price for GPs, Specialists and ARS

Healthcare Services

Equity Research

July 8, 2026

Company Valuation/Risks

Healius Limited

We use a blend of three methodologies to derive our HLS price target: discounted cashflow analysis (DCF), a capitalisation of EV/EBITDA and

normalised PE multiples. This approach is appropriate because HLS has a number of listed competitors, and we can ascertain relative value. We

use PE valuation as it is a market standard and EV/EBITDA as this is frequently used in the global healthcare sector to compare companies with

different gearing and taxation levels. Upside risks include earnings growth from ongoing cost-out initiatives and downside risks include lower-

than-expected margins in the pathology division.

Integral Diagnostics Limited

We use a blend of three methodologies to derive our IDX price target: discounted cashflow analysis (DCF), a capitalisation of EV/ EBITDA and

normalised PE multiples. This approach is appropriate because IDX has a number of listed competitors, and we can ascertain relative value. We

use a PE valuation as it is a market standard and EV/EBITDA as its valuation metric as this is frequently used in the global healthcare sector to

compare companies with different gearing and taxation levels.

Upside risks to our price target include: Growth in the Australian Diagnostic Imaging franchise division could surprise on the upside in terms of

revenue and margin growth. Other upside risks include further accretive acquisitions and better-than-expected synergy gains.

Downside risks to our price target include: if the expected growth in revenue from the Australian and New Zealand businesses fails to materialise,

and margin compression in the Australian Diagnostic Imaging business.