Commodity Tracker: Cocoa and Coffee Stir the Pot

Research evidence excerpt

Commodity Tracker: Cocoa and Coffee Stir the Pot

rop. Our JEF Food Commodity Index analyzes

36 commodities across the agricultural and

Cocoa and coffee leading upward revisions. Our JEF Commodity Index is pointing to +3.0% energy landscape and forecasts the direction

2H'26 y/y input costs, a ~100-bp increase from our June estimates. ~64% of the commodities we of the larger commodity backdrop over the

track posted upward revisions vs. our prior estimates in 2026, driven by coffee and cocoa. That next 12 months, based on current spot rates,

said, coffee and cocoa are both still projected to decline y/y in 2H'26, and excluding these two futures contracts, and proprietary forecasts.

commodities and eggs, our Index is pointing to +4.3% y/y input costs (vs. 4.8% in our last update).

* USDA price data for chicken, eggs, and67% of commodities we track are expected to be inflationary y/y in 2H'26, with soybean oil (+32%),

peanuts in Oct'25 are unavailable due tononfat dry milk (+29%), and hard red wheat (+28%) increasing the most among food commodities.

disruptions in government reporting systemsFor 2027, our Index is pointing to a ~1.3% y/y increase in input costs, led by US cocoa (+22%),

caused by the government shutdown.London cocoa (+21%), butter (+18%), and cheese (+9%).

Our index doesn't capture labor,Middle East risk cooling on paper, but Hormuz remains disrupted; cocoa surges on West African

transportation/freight, or other supply-chainweather. Since our last update, the US and Iran signed a 60-day memorandum of understanding on

cost impacts expected to affect foodJune 17 aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent has retreated to ~pre-conflict levels as

companies under our coverage.tanker traffic through the region has begun to recover.