Growing the Franchise, Not Chasing the Beat

Research evidence excerpt

Growing the Franchise, Not Chasing the Beat

Netherlands | Banks

ING Groep N.V. EquityJulyResearch8, 2026

ESTIMATE CHANGEGrowing the Franchise, Not Chasing the Beat

NII trajectory intact into 2Q on hedge tailwind + softer campaigns. Investor RATING HOLD

focus will be on future deposit costs & campaigns. Belgian deposit repricing PRICE €28.35^

begins, but the transmission will be gradual. Recent investments & salary PRICE TARGET | % TO PT €28.00 | -1%

increases could weigh on costs. Capital remains limited but optionality on the 52W HIGH-LOW €28.83 - €19.18

table. We stay Hold, ING trading at 1.6x P/TBV for a 16% RoTE by 2028. FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 74.0% | 254.99

MARKET CAP €110.1B | $125.9B

The NII trajectory & liability margin dynamics remain the real story. ING changed the Short-rate TICKER INGA NA

wording from "slightly higher" to "averaged higher", positive for the liability margin & commercial ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

NII into 2Q - positive impact of hedging tailwind (c.+2bps on liability margin in 1Q) and lower than

usual deposit campaigns, before normalizing going forward - expect a give-back further into 2H.

The late-June ECB hike will have only a marginal in-quarter impact on 2Q print. Volume momentum FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

should continue (helped by seasonality & targeted campaigns), with the upgrade of corporate loan 2026 2027 2026 2027

demand to "solid" a discrete positive for WB. Moderating volatility should also unwind the hedge REV <1% +1% NA NA

ineffectiveness drag that spoiled 1Q other income. VLK dividend was €26m in 2Q (vs. €12m in EPS +1% +2% NA NA

2Q25).

Belgian deposit repricing kicks off. The +25 bps fidelity premium on classic savings account 2026 (€) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY