An Update on Climate Tipping Points w/ Prof. Tim Lenton | REPLAY

Research evidence excerpt

An Update on Climate Tipping Points w/ Prof. Tim Lenton | REPLAY

Global | Sustainability & Transition Strategy July 8, 2026

An Update on Climate Tipping Points w/ Prof.

Tim Lenton | REPLAY

As covered previously, rising temperatures could trigger irreversible climate

tipping points, with severe economic impacts. We hosted Prof. Tim Lenton (Uni.

of Exeter), a leader in this field, for an update. KTs: 1) Several major systems

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are closer to tipping thresholds than previously appreciated, 2) Investors should

focus less on “2°C vs 3°C”, more on amplification and asymmetric effects; 3)

Mainstream climate models could understate regional risks.

Several Tipping Points Closer Than Previously Expected — Recent evidence on climate tipping

points suggests several critical systems look more vulnerable, less stable, and less resilient than

previously assumed.

Coral Reefs: Recent evidence indicates the world has already passed the tipping point for•

widespread dieback of tropical coral reefs. Beyond the direct human and biodiversity impact

(~500m people depend on reef ecosystems), the mechanical protection that reefs provide to

coastlines against storm surges is degrading, which implies risks to coastal real estate values

are higher than the pace of sea level rise would suggest.

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC): New data suggests the system is•

less resilient than previously thought. A recent pre-print from Prof. Lenton's group – using

conservative assumptions on Greenland ice-sheet melt – puts the probability that the world

is already committed to an AMOC collapse at >10%. Regions most exposed include Europe,

West Africa and the tropical monsoon belt. One underappreciated aspect is that AMOC

collapsing would lead to sharply colder winters in the EU (e.g.