India Energy Jun-26 Preview | Reliance, PV makers to see healthy growth

Research evidence excerpt

India Energy Jun-26 Preview | Reliance, PV makers to see healthy growth

India | Energy EquityJulyResearch8, 2026

Exhibit 1 - Singapore GRM trendIndia Energy Jun-26 Preview | Reliance, PV

Singapore GRM (US$/bbl)

21.3makers to see healthy growth 21

9.5Reliance should report 10% y/y Ebitda growth on the back of strong O2C 14 12.5 7.5 7.3 7.2 6.3 8.2 5.5 7 5.1 5.6 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.6 3.2and recovery in Retail. ONGC should report strong standalone Ebitda growth

from rising crude/gas prices but consolidated Ebitda will decline on loss in 0 2QFY23 3QFY23 4QFY23 1QFY24 2QFY24 3QFY24 4QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25 4QFY25 1QFY26 2QFY26 3QFY26 4QFY26 1QFY27

HPCL. OMCs should be deep in the red. The gas pack will bear the brunt of .Source: Industry reports, Jefferies

the Qatar Gas LNG outage in the quarter. PV module players should report

strong y/y growth in revenue/Ebitda. Prefer Emmvee, Premier and BPCL/ Exhibit 2 - Trend in Blended Petrochemical

IOCL. Margin Tracker for Reliance

RIL Blended Petchem Margin Tracker (US$/ton)

Refining, petchem rose y/y: Singapore GRM increased to US$ 21.3/bbl (vs. US$ 5.6/bbl in 550 10-yr avg

1QFY26) as diesel, gasoline, and ATF margins rose 263%/152%/342% y/y. European diesel 450

and US gasoline spreads rose 199%/72% y/y. Petrochemical margins +56% y/y. 350

Marketing margins sharply lower: Marketing margins on petrol and diesel averaged Rs 250 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20 Jun-21 Dec-21 Jun-22 Dec-22 Jun-23 Dec-23 Jun-24 Dec-24 Jun-25 Dec-25 Jun-26

-10.6/-18.4 per ltr (Rs 9.6/10.1 in 1QFY26) due to sharp spike in crude from the Middle East .Source: Bloomberg, Company reports, Jefferies estimates

conflict.

Exhibit 3 - Marketing margin on petrol/diesel