Guming 1H26 Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Guming 1H26 Preview

China (PRC) | China Consumer

Guming EquityJulyResearch8, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGE1H26 Preview

We expect Guming to deliver 1H26 sales/adj. NP growth of 33%/36% YoY, RATING BUY

supported by a 32% increase in avg store count and resilient per-store GMV. PRICE HK$21.30^

Although expansion moderated to prioritize store quality and franchisee PRICE TARGET | % TO PT HK$27.00 (HK$35.00) |

profitability, we view this as a strategic move to support LT growth. We +27%

52W HIGH-LOW HK$31.28 - HK$19.75

lower forecasts and PT to HKD27 on a more cautious store expansion

FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 24.5% | 107.51

outlook, but maintain Buy as fundamentals remain healthy amid post-

MARKET CAP HK$50.7B | $6.5B

subsidy industry adjustment.

TICKER 1364 HK

^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

We expect Guming to report 1H26 sales/ adjusted NP of RMB7.54bn/1.47bn (+33.2/+35.7% noted.

YoY). Reported NP in 1H26 would also be RMB1.47bn, down 9.6%, as in 1H25 there was a

RMB557m gain in fair value changes of financial liabilities at FV through P/L (due to IPO). In

detail: FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

2026 2027 2026 2027

Store count: We expect sales to be mainly driven by 32.3% growth in average store REV -3% -8% -4% -9%•

count. Guming added c.800 net new stores in 1H26, slower than 1265/2375 new EPS -3% -8% -7% -11%

store additions in 1H25/2H25. Similar to the broader tea drink industry, franchisees'

willingness to expand has moderated following the normalization of platform subsidies 2026 (RMB) 1Half 2Half FY

and profitability pressure. We believe the slower pace also reflects mgmt.'s proactive EPS -- -- 1.32

focus on store quality, unit economics, and franchisee profitability to support sustainable PREV 1.36

long-term growth. Adjusted EPS