Dispatchable ≠ Dependable: Accreditation as the Shadow Price of Firm Fuel

Research evidence excerpt

Dispatchable ≠ Dependable: Accreditation as the Shadow Price of Firm Fuel

USA | Midstream & Utilities EquityJulyResearch8, 2026

Dispatchable ≠ Dependable: Accreditation as the Many investors perceive gas to be a

'dependable' asset - yet accredation simplyShadow Price of Firm Fuel no longer reflects this reality for critical

Accreditation becoming shadow price of gas deliverability as RTOs penalize winter months when prices are the highest.

Power is becoming a story not about the

scarcity-hour underperformance. MISO gas accreditation 85-90%+ summer vs summer but about wintertime operations

60-65% winter exposes installed vs accredited MW gap. Cheapest fixes are likely when gas system is the most stretched.

first before greenfield pipes; but we perceive load growth will eventually force

We continue our focus on gas deliverability

firmer infra. Winners: gas storage, constrained pipes, brownfield, marketing; as an emerging issue. Declining deliverability

(ENB, WMB, DTM); dispatchable IPPs: (NRG, VST). on gas assets accentuates need for

re-evaluating gas reinvestment. Market

Resource accreditation is becoming the shadow price of fuel deliverability. Capacity markets prices remain challenged on incentivizing

are migrating from nameplate MW toward risk-hour performance, creating an economic signal for firmer gas. Power assets will focus on

fuel assurance even where explicit firm-transport rules do not exist. RTOs increasingly penalize cheaper, on-site maintenance and marginal

units that cannot perform during scarcity hours — whether from gas deliverability constraints, improvements to deliverability. See rising

maintenance failures or cold-weather issues. For gas-fired generation, "dispatchable" capacity and capacity prices in MISO in particular accruing