Initiation of Coverage Regis Healthcare: Proceeding with care

Research evidence excerpt

Initiation of Coverage Regis Healthcare: Proceeding with care

boost retention and add $400m+ of cash inflow as residents turn over, all else equal. From To % ch Cons.

06/26E - 0.18 - 0.17

Upside from policy initiatives to stimulate investment in new capacity 06/27E - 0.22 - 0.24

The Minister has recently acknowledged the sector needs “about 10,000 aged care beds 06/28E - 0.27 - 0.29

per year” but only added ~800 places last year. With the shortage worsening, we expect

David Low

future policy will seek to encourage investment both directly (i.e. via higher supplements

Analyst

for new builds in the Budget), and indirectly, by improving returns, noting recent sector david.low@ubs.com

profitability has been under pressure. While policy is likely to favour supported residents, +61-2-9324 2843

we believe all providers stand to benefit, particularly those such as Regis with the

James Meares

balance sheet and capability to develop new capacity.

james.meares@ubs.com

Near-term caution reflects earnings downside +61-29-324 3575

We see downside to FY27 consensus estimates (UBSe EBITDA A$156m, VA Cons. A Grace Allen

$163m) primarily related to the annual AN-ACC decision and the transition to Higher Associate Analyst

Everyday Living Fees (HELF). Beyond earnings risk, the new CEO starts later this month grace-za.allen@ubs.com

and investor sentiment could potentially weaken if residential property prices continue +61-2-9324 2000

to soften. While the ~$15m of RAD retention helps ensure EBITDA growth in FY27, our

estimates sit 4% below Visible Alpha consensus. Key upcoming catalysts include: (i)

FY26 Result (24-Aug), (ii) 2026 AN-ACC Aug/Sep, and (iii) M&A execution.

Valuation: A$7.00/share Price Target; Neutral rating