Japan Game Sector: June quarter earnings outlook [Erratum]

Research evidence excerpt

Japan Game Sector: June quarter earnings outlook [Erratum]

Global Research

8 July 2026ab

Japan Game Sector Equities

JapanJune quarter earnings outlook [Erratum]

Entertainment

Yijia Zhai

Sector Overview: Weak momentum, limited pipeline Analyst

We expect the weak momentum in the Japanese game sector to continue, with investor yijia.zhai@ubs.com

interest remaining subdued and the sector continuing to serve as a funding short against +81-3-5208 6203

the Electronic Components and Hardware sectors. A temporary share-price rebound is Yanyi Song

possible if these funding-long sectors underperform. However, from a fundamental Associate Analyst

perspective, the sector faces a limited pipeline of major title releases through the end of yanyi.song@ubs.com

CY2026, as many developers appear to be pushing launches into 2027 to avoid +81-3-5208 6199

potential cannibalization from GTA6. As a result, even if near-term earnings beats

emerge, we would not expect share-price strength to be long-lasting unless supported

by clearer evidence of sustainable growth.

Earnings Highlights: Upside in title tailwinds, downside in legacy weakness

For the upcoming earnings season, we see the clearest upside potential in names with

identifiable title or live-service tailwinds: Capcom, driven by Pragmata, deferred revenue

from Resident Evil Requiem, and repeat sales; Konami, supported by the continued

strength of eFootball and momentum related to the world cup; and Koei Tecmo, helped

by additional Pokemon Pokopia shipments. By contrast, we expect earnings misses from

Nexon, where we believe weakness is broad-based across DnF mobile China, DnF PC

and FC; Nintendo, which saw weakness in both hardware and software shipments (link);